Biyokulule Online

Report on Arab Gulf Authorities` Concern About Al-Qaeda`s Growing Influence
Al-Quds al-Arabi Online
Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Graphic locates Yemen and shows country statistics

Commentary by the political editor: “Advanced Explosive Devices Difficult to Discover; Obama`s Vow to Escalate War Against Al-Qaeda are Diffiucult to Carry out; Concern in the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf About Al-Qaeda`s Growing Power in Yemen”

The security agencies in the Arab region and in the Gulf States, primarily in Yemen and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, are very deeply concerned after they clearly saw the magnitude of the influence of Al-Qaeda organization, the spread of its elements in Yemen`s rugged terrain, its success in recruiting elements capable of penetrating the strict security measures at the European airports, and the latest attempt by the Nigerian national, Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab, to blow up a civilian airliner over Detroit four days ago. The source of this concern is due to several main reasons that can be summed up in the following points:

First, the Al-Qaeda organization has succeeded in developing explosive charges of liquids that are difficult to discover at airports, because a small amount of such liquids that can be stuck to the body can destroy a jumbo jet. It is worth noting that the explosive device that Abdulmutallab used to blow up the US airliner was similar to that used by his colleague Abdallah Hasan Asiri, who attempted to assassinate Prince Muhammad Bin-Nayif, Saudi deputy interior minister. The outcome of the second device was similar to that of the first; it did not blow up for “technical reasons,” as a statement released by Al-Qaeda, which claimed responsibility for the latest attempt, said. Prince Muhammad Bin-Nayif was not injured in that attempt and all the stories that the body of the suicide bomber was torn to bits and pieces were not accurate. And the same could be said about the story of the reception hall having been spattered with the blood of the suicide bomber, for no photos were published to prove the truth of these stories.

Second, A-Qaeda releases statements inciting its loyalists and the tribes that support it to target Western embassies and bases in the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen, and in the Gulf States. This is tantamount to a “declaration of war” to avenge the victims of the US and Yemeni air raids that recently targeted Al-Qaeda complexes in Abyan.

Third, numerous mosques throughout Yemen incite against Americans and the governments conniving with them, and to offer aid and support to Al-Qaeda organization.

Fourth, there are large numbers of Yemeni expatriates in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and in the Gulf States. The Al-Qaeda in Yemen, led by Nasir al-Wuhayshi and by his Saudi deputy Sa`id al-Shihri, may try to penetrate these expatriates. For whoever succeeds in recruiting a Nigerian youth to join Al-Qaeda would find it only too easy to recruit Yemeni elements.

Fifth, it appears easy for Al-Qaeda elements in Yemen and in the Gulf region to move freely, thanks to the location of Yemen in the Arabian Peninsula, particularly its southern part, where Al-Qaeda is positioned, which overlooks open seas, let alone Yemen`s proximity to the failed State of Somalia.

Sixth, Yemen is now regarded as a semi-failed state incapable of controlling its border. As such, it is a suitable environment for extremist organizations. The US intervention in favor of the Yemeni government against Al-Qaeda may lead to increase in popular sympathy for Al-Qaeda and make people view its leaders and victims as heroes. Hatred for the United States and the West among the Yemeni people is the highest in the Muslim world.

With the latest attempt to set off an explosive device in a US airliner, the Al-Qaeda organization has demonstrated that it has succeeded in reorganizing its ranks and bases in the Arabian Peninsula, where two-thirds of oil reserves are located. It also proved its ability to act and achieve goals in Western and American capitals and cities.

Regardless of the failure to blow up the US airliner, the Al-Qaeda has emerged as the biggest winner and demonstrated high ability to penetrate Western security fortifications. The Al-Qaeda masterminds had very carefully chosen their target by attempting to blow up an airliner at the Christmas holiday season to create the greatest amount possible of horror and achieve the greatest measure of propaganda. Indeed, the name of Al-Qaeda and its attempt have featured on the front pages of newspapers and radio and television broadcasts in Europe, the United States, and even in the whole world. This intense media reportage followed a period of dormancy during which the news of Al-Qaeda was published at the bottom of back pages.

US President Barak Obama`s threat to hunt down and eliminate Al-Qaeda is reminiscent of former US President George Bush`s vow at the beginning of the war on Afghanistan, when he said he would force the Al-Qaeda elements out of their caves, kill them, or bring them to justice. President Bush`s mission was easier because in October 2001, when the air raids on Afghanistan started, Al-Qaeda had one base, namely the caves and mountains of Tora Bora overlooking Jalalabad, and forming extensions to the Hindu Kush Mountains. Now Al-Qaeda has more than one base; it has headquarters in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and in the Islamic Maghreb.

Former President Bush`s campaign against Al-Qaeda and terrorism cost the US treasury $800 billion, 4,000 dead, and tens of thousands of wounded. Despite this, and nine years after the campaign, Al-Qaeda has demonstrated that it is more powerful and more capable of carrying out its attacks. The mission of President Barak Obama and of his allies in the Arab region and in the Gulf States will be far more difficult than that of his predecessor, Bush. For Al-Qaeda now has many bases and the United States is waging two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which it will be impossible to win except by a miracle.

(Description of Source: London Al-Quds al-Arabi Online in Arabic -- Website of London-based independent Arab nationalist daily with strong anti-US bias. URL: http://www.alquds.co.uk/)

Yemeni Editorial Wonders What Price State Will Pay in Fighting Al-Qaeda
Yemen Times Online
Wednesday, December 30, 2009

This image provided by IntelCenter Wednesday Dec. 30, 2009 and taken from a video released Jan. 23, 2009 by al-Malahim Media Foundation, the media arm of Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula shows men whom IntelCenter identifies as the senior leaders of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula_from left to right: Abu Hurayrah Qasim al-Reemi , Said al-Shihri, Naser Abdel Karim al-Wahishi, alias Abu Basir, and Abu al-Hareth Muhammad al-Oufi. Al-Oufi, who was once held U.S. custody in Guantanamo Bay, surrendered in Yemen recently and was handed over to Saudis. Al-Shiri was once held in Guantanamo also

Editorial by Nadia Al-Sakkaf: “Houthis, Secessionists and Now Al-Qaeda?!

Our state seems very serious in its recent fight against Al-Qaeda elements in Yemen. In the last two weeks several operations were carried out and tens of men were arrested.

As usual many civilians were killed as happens when such large scale operations take place. In the raid on Abyan earlier this month, many families were killed. They lived in slums near Al-Qaeda camp in a village of Al-Mahfad district in Abyan. When the air force attacked the camp, some missiles hit the civilians around them and caused the death of tens of civilians mostly women and children.

I have two questions here; why would some Yemenis live near Al-Qaeda camp, especially since they are living in simple homes which they can reconstruct elsewhere. The other question is why they were hit despite the fact that they lived between one to two kilometers away from the camp. Doesn`t this indicate that our air force aiming skills are not very good?

Yet I have another concern which is why our government decided to start a third battle front while it is still struggling with the first two. As we have the Houthis in the north giving both Yemen and Saudi Arabia a hard time, and the southern movement in the south throwing a fit every now and then and pulling strings locally and internationally.

Was it wise to make a third enemy in such vulnerable times? As it is it must have been common knowledge for the security and local authorities in Abyan that the camp existed. It`s not like it was erected overnight. Moreover, I still remember how angry the US government was at Yemen when we released a few Al-Qaeda members from Yemeni security prisons. They were on USA`s most wanted list, but President Saleh decided they were harmless and let them out. So now why the frenzy against everything even remotely related to Al-Qaeda? Not that I object, on the contrary this is something that should have been done long ago. But why now?

One reason is that because the Yemeni government is overstretched dealing with internal problems that it decided this is probably not a good time to annoy powerful countries. Perhaps Saleh asked for international support to deal with the local trouble makers and in return he was obliged to change his lenient attitude towards Al-Qaeda in Yemen. The American attention and support given to this recent change of heart shows that this reasoning is probably right.

So what we are seeing is a Yemeni state launching attacks right and left, or rather north and south with the help of neighboring and friendly countries. Although Saudi Arabia is still struggling with the problems at its boarders, the American technology seems to be working more efficiently. They still have to make the Yemeni air force`s aiming better because we don`t want more civilian causalities.

How will Yemen come out of these wars? The Houthi issue today is very serious and no doubt it has reached a “kill or be killed” situation. The southern movement has lost some of its international support whether from Yemeni political asylum seekers in Arab states, or sympathetic foreign countries. Every nation that I know has said they support the Yemeni unity.

And now Al-Qaeda vows revenge and threatens not only foreign interests in the country, but also what they called “American`s agents in Yemen.”

With all the political and security wars going on in Yemen, today the living conditions have become unbearable. Commodity prices have gone up over night with no reason. The hungry people are getting poorer and we have more displaced Yemenis today than we ever had in history.

Yes we need to fight terrorism and protect our country`s security and sovereignty, but at what price? And how will we ever recover from these damages to the infrastructure, state institutions and even social texture? What foreign aid our government will call for then?

(Description of Source: Sanaa Yemen Times Online in English -- Website of independent twice-weekly, Yemen`s largest-circulation English-language newspaper; URL: http://yementimes.com/)

Arab Analyst Warns Yemeni Poverty `Plays Into The Terrorists` Hands`
Die Presse
Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Interview with Dr Mustafa Alani, Senior Advisor and Program Director for Security and Terrorism Studies, Gulf Research Center, Dubai, by Silke Mertins; place and date not given: “Terrorism Expert: `Jemen Is the Operational Base.` First paragraph is a Die Presse introduction; final paragraph is a brief biographical resume.

Terrorism expert Mustafa Alani explains how Al-Qaeda managed to establish a foothold in Yemen, and why he now fears the wealthy Gulf states may also soon be attack targets. “The vast majority of the Yemenis see Al-Qaeda as a danger.”

(Silke Mertins) Al-Qaeda in Yemen has claimed responsibility for the attempted attack on a US aircraft heading for Detroit. Has the country developed into a new center of terrorism?

(Mustafa Alani) It isn`t a matter of Al-Qaeda in Yemen, but of Al-Qaeda in the Arab peninsula as a whole. Al-Qaeda`s Saudi and Yemeni branches merged a year ago. Since then, Al-Qaeda has started stepping up its recruitment in Yemen. The group is publishing more than previously, an example being the internet magazine, “Echo of the Battlefield.” And in particular it has carried out more attacks - such as the one in Saudi Arabia last August on Prince Mohammad, who heads the government`s fight on terrorism. Many of its members who are now active in Yemen are not Yemenis, but Saudis. They are under strong pressure in Saudi Arabia itself.

(Mertins) So the Saudi members provide the money and the ideology, while the Yemenis provide the territory, much of which is not under government control?

(Alani) Yemen was selected as the new operational base for a whole raft of reasons. The Yemeni Government is contending with three conflicts right now: the Huthi conflict, the separatists in the south, and Al-Qaeda. The offensive against the Huthis is taking up so many of the government`s capacities as to enable Al-Qaeda to feel safe, and able to move around relatively freely. Furthermore, the poverty in Yemen provides good scope to recruit new members. Then on top of all that, there is Yemen`s favorable geographical situation.

(Mertins) Some estimates put the number of Al-Qaeda members in Yemen at up to 1,500. Is that correct?

(Alani) It most certainly is not correct. The number of supporters and new recruits is unknown. But the government`s wanted list runs to only around 50 men. They form the core.

(Mertins) Has the Yemeni Government failed in its fight against Al-Qaeda?

(Alani) It is true that a group of 23 Al-Qaeda detainees managed to break out of prison in 2006. Yet what rarely gets a mention is this: 20 out of those 23 were either killed, or recaptured. Only three of them are still at large. The Yemenis are better at fighting terror than their reputation suggests. Al-Qaeda`s most recent attacks in Yemen itself, including one targeting the US mission in Sana`a, all failed too.

(Mertins) What led the Americans to stage their first active air strikes in December?

(Alani) The Yemeni Government doesn`t have sufficient capacities, owing to its offensive against the Huthis. It needs help, though it did take part in the air strikes. It rightly says that Al-Qaeda`s presence in its country is not solely a Yemeni problem, but a regional one.

(Mertins) Is American help wise?

(Alani) Sure. But the Americans continue to see Al-Qaeda merely as a security problem. Poverty is certainly a major factor too.

(Mertins) Really?

The Detroit bomber is the son of a banker. The 9/11 terrorists all hailed from well-to-do families.

(Alani) That`s true. But the wealthy jihadists make up only 20 percent of the organization. 80 percent of them are poor. I am not saying that poverty is the sole reason. But the poor economic situation plays into the terrorists` hands.

(Mertins) How great is the public sympathy there for Al-Qaeda ?

(Alani) It was very great in the 1990s. Today, the vast majority of the Yemenis see Al-Qaeda as a danger. They have no problem with their country having received US support over the air strikes.

(Mertins) Could Al-Qaeda strike back, targeting Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Qatar, from Yemen?

(Alani) I can see that coming. You only have to read what they are publishing. Al-Qaeda in Yemen has never made any secret of the fact that it sees the Gulf region as a whole as its target. Unless Yemen gets help in fighting Al-Qaeda, then attacks are going to reach the Gulf states very soon.

(Mertins) What can the west do?

(Alani) On the one hand, provide direct help. But what Yemen primarily needs is support in combating the Huthi rebels, for the government lacks the capacities to fight simultaneously on all these fronts. And third, development and economic aid. The Person: Mustafa Ali is a specialist in terrorism and security policy in the Middle East. At present he is a researcher and publisher at the Gulf Research Center, a Dubai-based thinktank funded by Saudi Arabia. Alani returned from a research visit to Yemen two weeks ago.

(Description of Source: Vienna Die Presse in German -- independent centrist daily)

Yemen -- New Pro-Huthist YouTube User Touts Iran, Taunts Saudis
Wednesday, December 30, 2009

A growing number of the videos are explicitly pro-Iranian and appear designed to taunt Saudi Arabia, which entered the war in early November following incursions by Huthist insurgents across the border into Saudi territory.

YouTube poster has recently begun posting propaganda videos related to the war in Sa`dah. The primary themes of a number of the videos have been strongly pro-Iranian -- both the Yemeni and Saudi Governments accuse Iran of providing material and moral support to the insurgents -- and seem specifically aimed at provoking Saudi anger. While the new poster appears to be an adherent of Shiite Islam, the true identity and nationality of the individual or group behind the new videos is unclear.

A new, very active user has recently begun posting pro-Huthist propaganda videos on YouTube under the username “Yemenlions.” While the use of YouTube in the ongoing conflict between the Shia Huthist insurgency and the governments of Yemen and Saudi Arabia is not new, several aspects of Yemenlions` activity are noteworthy. (1)

The themes in a small but growing number of the videos are explicitly pro-Iranian and appear designed to taunt Saudi Arabia, which entered the war in early November following incursions by Huthist insurgents across the border into Saudi territory.

The new user has been intensely active. From its registration on 28 November through 11 December, “Yemenlions” posted 143 videos related to the war.

The production standards of the “Yemenlions” videos are significantly higher and more professional in appearance than those of previous pro-Huthist YouTube videos. Touting Iran, Taunting Saudis

While many of the videos are typical of the overall Huthist propaganda effort, a small but growing number have been pointedly pro-Iranian, or provocatively anti-Saudi.

A clip published under the insulting title “Why do the Wahhabi Brothers Hate Iran?” (2) suggests that the answer to the question is Iranian military superiority, as it shows a video demonstrating Iranian military power accompanied by Iranian military music.

Similarly, another clip titled “This is Iran, What Have You Achieved, Wahhabi Brothers?” displays footage of Iranian missile forces conducting tests of their weapons, as well as footage of exercises of Iranian antiaircraft weapons systems. To view the video clip, click here. The Yemenlions logo uses the words “The War Media,” with Kalashnikov rifle barrels incorporated into the Arabic script. The logo includes the Huthist banner and slogan: “God is Great, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse on the Jews, Victory to Islam.” Asserting Shia Identity

One of the first videos appearing under the “Yemenlions” username established the site`s Shiite identity. It consisted of a series of video clips of Huthist religious figures delivering sermons on the Ghadir al-Khumm Shiite religious holiday. This annual Shiite festival commemorates what Shia believe to be the Prophet Muhammad`s selection of Ali as his successor, an interpretation that is rejected by Sunnis and forms the basis for the Sunni-Shia sectarian divide. To view a clip of the video, click here. Who is `Yemenlions?`

According to the user`s online profile, “Yemenlions” registered as a user on 28 November 2009, claiming to be a “Huthist” from the town of Razih. According to the pro-Huthist Al Minbar.com website, Razih has been the scene of clashes between the Huthist insurgents and Saudi forces, including air raids by Saudi aircraft. Under the heading “occupation,” “Yemenlions” lists “holy warrior.” From the available information it is not possible to determine the identity, affiliation, or even nationality of the user or users behind the new videos.

(1) For background on both Huthist and Yemeni Government use of YouTube videos for propaganda purposes -- Video Technician Conviction Highlights Importance of New Media in Propaganda War.

(2) The term Wahhabi is derived from the name of Muhammad Ibn `Abd al-Wahhab, the founder of the strict, conservative interpretation of Islam officially embraced in Saudi Arabia. Saudis reject the use of the term, seeing themselves as the only authentic Muslims and seeing in the term the implication that Saudi Islam is but one of a number of valid ways to practice the faith.

Commentary Warns Iran Cannot Fight `Extremist` Group With Arms Only
Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
Friday, October 23, 2009

Commentary by Abd-al-Rahman al-Rashid: “Sunni-Shi`a Proxy War”

Who is using who? Is it regimes that use extremists for their political ends, or is it extremists that exploit political differences to achieve their objectives? Let us examine the recent suicide attack in south eastern Iran. An extremist Sunni organization has claimed responsibility for the attack in which a number of senior Revolutionary Guard officers were killed. The manner in which this attack was conducted and announced resembles the numerous suicide operations that were carried out in Iraq against political forces, military sites, and innocent mass gatherings.

Also, what we saw in Iran resembles what happened and is still happening in Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and elsewhere: complicated terrorist operations bearing the hallmarks of highly organized groups. Besides, despite their resemblance, these attacks cannot possibly have the same source, however, terrorism has become one of the means of political action. It is no longer what it was in the nineties: a purely ideological suicide action. Because somebody used Al-Qaeda or sought the help of one of the jihadist groups that have proliferated in the region like microbes, perhaps others have had to think about the same means: using terrorism to impose specific policies or deter others.

This is not new in our region where, regrettably, violence and terrorism have been used as a tool for bargaining since the seventies. The new development is the use of religion in the political game. I do not know who is behind the Jundallah group that carried out the suicide operation in Iran, but this group is known as an extremist Sunni organization with a political message against the Iranian regime. Nonetheless, it appears to be the missing link in the regional fights under way. Belligerents exchange claims to be fighting in the name of Sunnis or Shi`as and to be combating infidels. They issue other statements, which no one versed in political affairs believes are innocent. It may be that these organizations are real, that they indeed uphold their ideas and that their members are believers who kill and fight under the brandished slogans, but it remains that in fact they are used in the settlement of accounts at higher levels.

Everybody must be aware now that no one is safe from religious wars. The Americans used Islamic fundamentalists to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan, and five years after the departure of the Russians the fundamentalists turned to fight the Americans. Iran sought their help to confront the Americans, and here it is today on the receiving end of their fire.

The Iranians should not commit the same mistake as the Americans by believing that this extremist group can be fought by arms only. In fact, it will not be able to do so, and it will find that hundreds of extremists are joining these armed groups, which will be helped by Iran`s opponents. Iran will then find itself in a more serious and narrower situation. Common interests are now dictating to even enemies to agree on the type of weapons with which to fight each other. As a result, it is possible to stay away from the terrorism weapon that has covered everybody in blood, specifically religion-based terrorism and the stirring up of sectarian quarrels.

It is not in the interest of Iran to support the Huthists or the Arab extremists, be they Sunni or Shi`a. Likewise, it is not in the interest of the other states to enter into the game of splitting the Iranian ranks, from a sectarian point of view. The region has had enough of 10 years of blood letting wars in the name of religion.

(Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic -- Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line reflects Saudi official stance. URL: http://www.asharqalawsat.com/)